A warmer global backdrop
El Niño can add to global warmth. Its temperature influence may persist beyond peak ocean warming.
A LITTLE PLAY. A BIGGER PICTURE.
Give Earth a
cooling break.
Send a breeze across a heat-struck planet. Watch the warm glow fade into ocean blue.
A playful simulation · not real climate data
HEATWAVE MODEILLUSTRATED EARTH
SIMULATED COOLING−0.0°C
One breeze at a time.
Each click = 0.2°C of simulated cooling
This game changes an illustration, not Earth’s temperature. Real cooling requires sustained cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.
EL NIÑO / A PACIFIC CLIMATE STORY
One ocean.
A world ofchanging weather.
El Niño begins in the tropical Pacific. Follow the connection between ocean temperatures, trade winds and rainfall to understand its global reach.
Explore El NiñoOcean×Atmosphere＝ENSO
EQUATORIAL PACIFICIllustration, not measured data
Warmer water
Trade winds weaken. Warm surface water spreads east, linking changes in the ocean and atmosphere.
WINTER 2026–2027
What does El Niño mean for the US?
Explore regional temperature and precipitation expectations, snowfall uncertainty and the latest official outlook.
Read the winter outlookUpdated · October 21, 2026LATEST BULLETIN / DATED SUMMARY
El Niño is strengthening
NOAA CPC’s September 10, 2026 discussion maintains an El Niño Advisory. This is a dated summary, not a live feed. Read the official bulletin for the latest assessment.
Read the NOAA bulletinIssued · September 10, 2026WHEN EL NIÑO IS VERY STRONG
A stronger signal.
Different risks around the world.
Often called a “super El Niño,” a very strong event can increase the likelihood of familiar El Niño impacts. It does not make every region hotter or every disaster more severe.
Less rain in some places
Drier conditions can strain water supplies and agriculture, with higher fire risk in affected regions.
More rain in others
Shifts in rainfall can raise the risk of heavy rain and flooding. The pattern depends on region and season.
Pressure on everyday life
Water, food production, energy systems and infrastructure can face knock-on effects from weather extremes.
Background: World Meteorological Organization · Local forecasts remain essential.
UNDERSTAND THE PATTERN
From the ocean to the world
Four questions. A clearer picture.
01THE BASICS
What Is El Niño?
Understand El Niño, tropical Pacific warming and the ENSO cycle.
Read the guide02OCEAN & ATMOSPHEREHow Does El Niño Form?
Follow trade winds, upwelling and the ocean–atmosphere feedback.
Read the guide03GLOBAL IMPACTSHow Does El Niño Affect Global Weather?
Explore teleconnections, regional differences and forecast uncertainty.
Read the guide04THREE PHASESEl Niño vs. La Niña: What Changes?
Compare the warm and cool ENSO phases through water, wind and rain.
Read the guideTHE IMPORTANT DISTINCTION
Climate influence.
No weather guarantees.
El Niño shifts the odds of certain weather patterns.
It does not determine every day, everywhere.
Location, season and other climate drivers matter. Pair the global picture with forecasts and warnings from your local weather service.
Explore impacts and uncertaintyCOMMON QUESTIONS
A few things worth knowing
Will El Niño make my city hotter?
Not necessarily. El Niño affects the broader climate background; local outcomes depend on season and other conditions. Consult an official outlook for your region.
Is El Niño the same as global warming?
No. ENSO is natural climate variability, while global warming is a long-term trend. Both influence climate, but they are different processes.
Does the Pacific diagram show live data?
No. The diagram illustrates the three ENSO phases; it does not show measured temperatures or geographic scale. Find official monitoring and forecast links on the Sources page.
How can I check the current ENSO phase?
Read NOAA CPC’s ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and check its date. Classification considers ocean temperatures, atmospheric responses and persistence, rather than a single day’s air temperature.
Good understanding starts with good sources.
Explore sources and our approach