EL NIÑO / FIELD GUIDE
How Does El Niño Affect Global Weather?
Changes in tropical Pacific temperatures and rainfall influence atmospheric circulation far beyond the ocean. These connections, called teleconnections, vary by region, season and event.
Rainfall patterns shift
During a typical El Niño, tropical Pacific rainfall tends to shift toward the central and eastern ocean, while Indonesia can become drier. For other regions, consult the relevant seasonal outlook.
Temperature patterns change
El Niño can influence global and regional temperatures without making every location hotter. Local weather also depends on other ocean and atmospheric conditions and long-term climate trends.
Probability, not certainty
Climate patterns change the likelihood of certain outcomes. They cannot guarantee a flood, drought or heatwave in a particular city, and ENSO alone cannot explain an individual disaster.
What about Europe and China?
A global schematic is not a local forecast. Use your national weather service’s seasonal outlooks and local warnings. Conditions in Europe or China cannot be inferred from the ENSO phase alone.
What about a super El Niño?
A very strong event can make typical El Niño effects more likely, including heat, drought and heavy rainfall in different regions. Its strength does not guarantee more severe impacts everywhere. Water supplies, food production and infrastructure may be affected. Always pair global outlooks with local forecasts.
WMO: very strong El Niño and weather risksReferences
This article explains established climate science using official sources. Consult the references for background, and always check the publication date of any forecast.
NOAA Climate.gov: background referenceNOAA CPC: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion